Money Matters with Matt: Lessons from 2025

COLUMN: Last week I wrote about stock market predictions for 2026. They’re still coming out.

You’d think that if a large asset manager sets out price targets across various asset classes, it should be easy to get your portfolio “ready” for the year ahead.

The problem, of course, is that there will inevitably be an event or occurrence that no one predicted, and it will throw a spanner in any prediction, and completely change the outlook.

It happens every year.

So instead of trying to guess what’s coming next, let’s reflect on what happened in 2025 and, more importantly, see what lessons we can take forward into 2026.

Here are some of them:

• Volatility is not a reason to abandon a plan. It’s simply the price of being invested. If anything, it’s often an opportunity.
• Fear and greed are terrible decision-makers. Who sold out at the bottom of the “Liberation Day” slump in April 2025?
• Your investment time horizon is personal. Borrowing someone else’s usually ends badly.
• FOMO never improves outcomes. Chasing the latest fad rarely ends well.
• Short-term performance, recent events, and compelling narratives have a way of hijacking long-term thinking.
• People still panic at exactly the wrong moments.
• Everyone is a stock market expert in a bull market.
• Markets change constantly. Human behaviour doesn’t.

These lessons applied in 2025, but they apply every year.

I’m sure we’ll see a 10–15% pullback at some point this year, triggered by something no one predicted. Headlines will scream “recession”. People will sell at the bottom. Or perhaps you’ll try to take advantage of a dip, only to watch it keep falling.

The only way to avoid this cycle is to have a plan that already accounts for these realities. A plan that doesn’t react to markets but anticipates them. A plan that aligns with your own personal circumstances and vision.

If the rand continues to strengthen, be happy with your local bond and JSE exposure. If it weakens, be happy with your offshore equity exposure. Each plays its role, in the right proportion, determined by your goals.

I don’t know what will happen in 2026. Neither does anyone else.

But whatever happens, the lessons will still apply.

They always do.

Matthew Matthee has a wealth management business that specialises in retirement planning and investments. He writes about financial markets, investments, and investor psychology. He holds a Masters Degree in Economics from Stellenbosch University and a Post Graduate Diploma in Financial Planning from UFS. [email protected]

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